Current Location: 20.2N, 81.1W
Geographic Reference: 210 miles SSE of Havana, Cuba
Movement: North-northwest at 14 mph
Max Winds: 85 mph gusting to 105 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 9 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 6 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 12 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 8 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Below Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 978 mb

Key Points

• Hurricane Rafael continues to strengthen as it moves northwestward across the northwest Caribbean.
• It will likely peak in its intensity before reaching western Cuba late this afternoon after a brief period of rapid intensification.
• Hurricane Rafael continues to track more westward across the central Gulf later on Thursday and into Friday. On Friday, Rafael will begin to weaken as it encounters increasing westerly wind shear. The storm is expected to turn northwest to northward this weekend and approach the southeast Louisiana coast as it weakens more rapidly due to stronger wind shear across the northern Gulf. There is a chance that Rafael may dissipate offshore the southeast Louisiana coast Sunday into Monday as it meanders offshore.
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Captiva Island Information

• Hurricane Rafael will emerge into the southeastern Gulf this evening and bring impacts to south Florida. Afterward, it will weaken and approach the Louisiana coast this weekend bringing some rainfall and gusty winds to portions of south Louisiana.
• Captiva Island will have NO storm surge associated with Hurricane Rafael.