Current Location: 22.7N, 88.4W
Geographic Reference: 485 miles WSW of Sarasota, FL
Movement: ENE at 10 mph
Max Winds: 145 mph gusting to 175 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 24 out of a possible 50 points (7 size, 17 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 29 out of a possible 50 points (10 size, 19 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 270 miles
Organizational Trend: Reorganizing after eyewall replacement
Forecast Confidence: Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 927 mb

 Key Points

• Hurricane Milton has weakened over the past few hours as it made its closest approach to the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
• Hurricane Milton is moving to the ENE. A turn to the northeast is expected tonight. This motion is expected to continue until Milton nears the Florida coast. At that time, a turn back to the ENE is expected.
• Hurricane Milton is forecast to move onshore somewhere near or just south of Tampa Bay tomorrow night or early Thursday morning. Milton will impact Florida as a major hurricane.
• Last night, Hurricane Milton appears to have completed an eyewall replacement cycle. This cycle has caused Milton to weaken significantly. However, now that the cycle has completed, some reintensification is expected today. It is possible that Milton could again become a category 5 hurricane before landfall.
• Hurricane Milton is also expected to grow in size before landfall, which will increase the tidal surge threat.
• Changes to the eventual track can be expected, it is important not to focus on single model runs or solutions!
• Across the west coast, the strongest winds and greatest surges are expected to occur just south of where the center moves onshore. Winds will cause widespread and long-lasting power outages as well as moderate to major damage.
• Storm surge damage will increase due to debris from Hurricane Helene.

Captiva Island Information

• A Flood Watch is in effect for Lee County until Thursday, October 10, 2024. 
• Rainfall amounts from the storm are expected to be 2-5 inches for Sanibel and Captiva Island on Tuesday and into Thursday morning.
• Possible storm surge of 5-10 feet are possible on Wednesday as the center nears the coast of Florida to the north. Major coastal flooding and some damage is expected.
• Travel is expected to be impacted!
• Lee County Emergency Management has provided Captiva Island Fire Control District with sand and sandbags for residents of Captiva Island. This is at no cost. For more information, click here.

Lee County Information

• The Emergency Operation Center fully activated on Monday. 
• Lee County has issued MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS for Zones A & B beginning noon on Monday.  Residents should leave before Tuesday evening and find a safe place to stay. 
• All Lee County tolls have been suspended.
• Curfews for Lee County will be announced later today.
• Lee County has declared a local state of emergency.  
• County offices are now closed and will remain closed through Thursday. 
• Lee County Schools are now closed and will remain closed through Thursday. 
• Shelter locations will open Monday at 3:00 pm and those locations can be found here. 
• Garbage pick-up has suspended operations through the end of the week.
• Lee County Utilities will shut off water to Fort Myers Beach at noon on Tuesday, Oct. 8. This is a precautionary measure to protect infrastructure.  All other Lee County Utilities operations continue as normal.