Skip to main content

Hurricane Milton Update 10

Hurricane track map indicating Hurricane Milton's path, warnings, and forecast positions over a map of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeastern U.S.
A storm surge forecast map showing expected water levels in Florida from Hurricane Milton.
Hurricane track map indicating Hurricane Milton's path, warnings, and forecast positions over a map of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeastern U.S.
A storm surge forecast map showing expected water levels in Florida from Hurricane Milton.

 

Current Location: 23.2N, 87.7W
Geographic Reference: 430 miles SW of Sarasota, FL
Movement: Northeast at 12 mph
Max Winds: 155 mph gusting to 190 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 27 out of a possible 50 points (7 size, 20 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 28 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 20 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 100 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 290 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly Strengthening
Forecast Confidence: Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 925 mb

 Key Points

  • Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified and is now a Category 5 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are upwards of 150 mph.
  • On Wednesday, cool, dry air over the northeast Gulf will begin entraining into the west and south side of Milton prior to landfall. This will drive most of Milton's heavy squalls to the north side of the track as the center crosses the Peninsula.
  • Hurricane Milton projected landfall continues to move south with the cone of probable path being somewhere near or just south of Tampa Bay extending south to Fort Myers. Landfall is expected late tomorrow night or early Thursday morning. Milton will impact Florida as a major hurricane. Changes to the eventual track can be expected, it is important not to focus on single model runs or solutions!
  • Hurricane Milton is also expected to grow in size before landfall, which will increase the tidal surge threat. Milton’s wind field is also expected to expand as it approaches Florida. The official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall.
  • Across the Florida west coast, the strongest winds and greatest surges are expected to occur just south of where the center moves onshore. Winds will cause widespread and long-lasting power outages as well as moderate to major damage.
  • Storm surge damage will increase due to debris from Hurricane Helene.

Captiva Island Information

  • A Flood Watch is in effect for Lee County until Thursday, October 10, 2024. 
  • Rainfall amounts from the storm are expected to be 2-5 inches for Sanibel and Captiva Island on Tuesday and into Thursday morning.
  • Possible storm surge has increased to 8-12 feet . Storm surge is possible on Wednesday as the center nears the coast of Florida to the north. Major coastal flooding and some damage is expected.
  • Travel is expected to be impacted!
  • Lee County Emergency Management has provided Captiva Island Fire Control District with sand and sandbags for residents of Captiva Island. This is at no cost. For more information, click here.
  • Captiva Island Fire Control District will plan to evacuate tomorrow, Wednesday, October 9, as winds increase. Fire personnel will station off island overnight until winds and surge reduce to a safe level. Once that happens personnel will work to access the island and start search and rescue efforts.
  • Residents and visitors that own a Lithium-Ion electric vehicles including cars, golf carts, etc. are encouraged to complete an information form on the website. This will allow fire personnel to approach the location with caution and also react accordingly if there is a fire. Please complete the form here.

Lee County Information

  • The Emergency Operation Center fully activated as Level 1 on Monday. 
  • Lee County has issued MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS for Zones A & B beginning noon on Monday.  Residents should leave before Tuesday evening and find a safe place to stay. 
  • All Lee County tolls have been suspended.
  • Curfews for Lee County are only for Sanibel Island and Fort Myers Beach. The curfew starts tonight at 10 pm. 
  • Lee County has declared a local state of emergency.  
  • County offices are now closed and will remain closed through Thursday. 
  • Lee County Schools are now closed and will remain closed through Friday. 
  • Shelter locations opened Monday at 3:00 pm and will remain open until further notice. Those locations can be found here. 
  • Garbage pick-up has suspended operations through the end of the week.
  • Lee County Utilities will shut off water to Fort Myers Beach at noon on Tuesday, Oct. 8. This is a precautionary measure to protect infrastructure.  All other Lee County Utilities operations continue as normal.
Join our mailing list