Key Points
1. Landfall is expected to occur around 3 PM in the vicinity of Boca Grande.
2. Catastrophic tidal surge damage is expected near and south of where landfall occurs.

Our Forecast
A reconnaissance plane flew through Ian’s western eyewall a few hours ago and found max sustained winds up to 155 mph, making Ian nearly a Category 5 hurricane. Satellite imagery indicates that dry air is beginning to infiltrate Ian’s south and southeastern eyewall, though, and that should prevent any further strengthening up to landfall early this afternoon.

We have not made any significant track changes in this advisory, but we did expand Ian’s predicted tropical storm force winds significantly to the north and northeast of the center as it emerges off the coast of Florida on Friday morning. The increased wind field means that tropical storm force winds can be expected all the way up the U.S. East Coast to north of Wilmington, NC from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. These tropical storm force winds will not extend very far inland across North Carolina, however. Final landfall is predicted to occur in South Carolina near Beaufort around 4PM EDT Friday.

The center of Ian’s eye is predicted to make landfall Near Boca Grande, FL around 3 PM EDT today as a Category 4 hurricane. A hurricane of Ian’s size and intensity will likely push a storm surge of 12-16 feet into the coast just ahead of landfall. This surge may top 20 feet into Port Charlotte and up the Caloosahatchee River into Fort Myers.

In case of emergency dial 9-1-1.  If you have any immediate needs or questions, please call the Captiva Island Fire Station @ 239-472-9494 or for general storm related requests you can also email us at hurricane_request@captivafire.com.

Jeff Pawul, Fire Chief